What does Russia want?
It’s been almost three weeks. War continues in Nagarno-Karabakh. Innocents die. In steps Russia to broker a ceasefire.
So, what does Russia want?
Russia does not want either side to win this conflict, so says Russian and Eurasia expert, Paul A. Goble. He adds that Russia would be amenable with an Azerbaijani victory only if Azerbaijan then becomes a client-state of Russia, but that will not happen.
Goble said Russia wants to maintain its role by playing one side against the other. He calls it, “divide and rule politics.”
“No one is prepared to talk peace” in this conflict, Goble says. Peace is when both sides walk away thinking they’ve won something or one has won so completely the other side must withdraw. But in the South Caucasus, no one even thinks beyond armistice.
When Turkey entered the conflict, it only made Russia more nervous, Goble added. But Goble believes the conflict will soon become frozen again because Azerbaijan or Armenia both have limited assets. Both countries also are aware that if either one begins a conflict the other will be helped or constrained by other more powerful countries.
Goble was asked about the issue of peacekeepers being kept out of the war zone by the president of Azerbaijan. Goble said Russian peacekeepers may be counterproductive because they are often spelled: “peice-keepers.” “If the Russian troops go into the area, they will remain,” he added. “They will not be peacekeepers they will be controllers and Baku has to object to that.”
Regarding the war on words and images that accompanies any modern war, Goble says, “the Azerbaijan government has not done what it should do to bring attention to the world about its internally displaced persons in Azerbaijan.” He said that the west ignored these millions of people because those in the west assumed that Azerbaijan would find its own solution to this problem. He added that Armenia has been better at presenting its side of the conflict even though Azerbaijan has advantages that would help if its government took time to focus on these issues.
“Wars may start quickly, but they rarely end quickly,” Goble said. “The question is how long will this go on.” He added that the conflict will likely again become frozen until the international community becomes more committed to a positive result. “It’s a mistake to confuse armistice, frozen conflict, and peace,” he said.
Please watch entire interview here on Osmanqizi TV
