Armenia & Azerbaijan: How did this Frozen Conflict heat up to WAR?
[This is a summary of the English-speaking program on Osmanqizi TV broadcast Sept 29, 2020]
Declarations of war have been made in Azerbaijan and Armenia just days ago. Many people have been killed and are suffering. It is not immediately clear how many people have died, but the deaths have included women and children.
Why now? Former Azerbaijani Ambassador to the Council of Europe and the European Union, Arif Shahmarli, says the reasons the conflict heated up now are vast and complex. He enumerated issues like, Turkey growing in its influence, the competition over North Stream oil, the global pandemic and the provocations of the new Armenia government on Azerbaijan.
Dr. Leyla Aliyeva, Russian and East Europeans Studies Affiliate at the Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, agreed and added that this war is different from other conflicts in the region because it includes not just one actor, like Ukraine or Belarus, but involves two external actors against each other.
Both Shahmarli and Aliyeva agreed that the war is being highly influenced by other countries in the region, mainly Russia and Turkey with Turkey favoring Azerbaijan and Russia more quietly backing Armenia. Shahmarli liked the war to a game of political chess with Russia and Turkey coordinating the game.
Peace negotiations led by the Minsk Group of France, Russia and the U.S. have been stalled for more than 27 years .
“But the Minsk group is outdated,” Shahmarli said. “It’s not working and needs new blood.” Both sides have grown tired of “political tourists” who move around the region in negotiation talks that have gone nowhere.
News in the West has hinted that this war maybe religiously motivated, but Aliyeva said this is just “P.R.” and an attempt to simplify a war that involves so many complexities. While Turkey and Azerbaijan are Muslim countries Azerbaijan is Shia and Turkey is Sunni. And Iran may be lining up with Armenia which seems to further confuse the suggestion of religious affiliations.
Shahmarli says that he thinks the war may be going on for many days or even months, but he hopes that silent negotiations are taking place to mitigate the conflict. He feels that these negotiations would be helped if the U.S. entered the discussions, he said. However, that might not take place until after the U.S, elections.
Please view the entire program here.
